Question 10

Please answer the following question.

We have observed the following data points, in chronological order (oldest to newest): 12, 22, 24, 17, 25, 10, 16, 14, 12 Using a 4-period moving average, predict the data point for the next period.

Question 11

Import the CarProduction.csv file into R. It contains annual car production for many different countries from 1999–2013.

Use R to predict the next annual car production value for Japan.

In addition, identify the optimal level of α.

Though you do not need to include it with your response, you may also find it informative to generate the plot showing both the forecasts and the data.

Question 12

Using the Car Production data set, use double exponential smoothing to forecast Brazil’s car production (which has a clear upward trend) for 2014.

In addition, identify the optimal levels of α and β.

Though you do not need to include it with your response, you may also find it informative to generate the plot showing both the forecasts and the data.

Question 13

Import the MonthlySales.csv file into R. Use the Holt–Winters model to forecast monthly sales for the next full year.

In addition, identify the mean squared error of the model.

For comparison, try creating a double exponential smoothing model for this time series (set gamma to FALSE). What do you notice?